U.S. Senate Election, 2006

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Seats up for election. Republican incumbents are red, Democratic incumbents are blue, open Republican seats are pink, open Democratic seats are light blue, and the open independent seat is yellow. States without a seat up for reelection are gray.

Elections for the United States Senate will be held on November 7, 2006, with 33 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate being contested. Since Senators are elected for six-year terms, those elected will serve from January 3, 2007 until January 3, 2013. Those Senators who were elected in 2000 will be seeking reelection or retiring in 2006.

The 2006 House election is scheduled for the same date as the Senate election, as well as many state and local elections, including those for 36 state governors.

Major Parties

Of the seats being contested, 17 are held by Democrats, 15 are held by Republicans, and 1 by an independent who votes with the Democratic caucus.

The Senate is currently composed of 55 Republicans, who have been in the majority since 2003, 44 Democrats, and 1 independent. (The independent, former Republican Jim Jeffords of Vermont, began voting with the Democratic caucus in 2001, but will not seek re-election.)

To gain a majority in the Senate, Democrats will need 51 seats, holding their 17 seats at risk and acquiring a gain of 6 or 7 seats depending on whether the open Vermont seat is won by a Republican. (With only 50 seats, the Democrats would remain in the minority as Vice President Dick Cheney as President of the Senate, breaks all tie votes.

To gain a "working majority" of 60 members, the number of votes required to break a filibuster, Republicans will need to gain five seats and hold their 15 seats at risk.

2006 Races

Races to watch

It is not yet clear which seats will have the most competitive races. Incumbent senators have a high rate of re-election, even when their party affiliation is at odds with the political trends of their state. The most competitive races tend to be those where the incumbent has retired, and those races in which the incumbent has served only one term are frequently competitive.

Additional special elections that are held due to the death or resignation of Senators in the interim would change the party balances listed above.

• Best chance to switch from R to D
  • Rhode Island (Lincoln Chafee)
    
  • Pennsylvania (Rick Santorum)
    
  • Montana (Conrad Burns)
    
  • Tennessee (Open)
    
  • Missouri (Jim Talent)
• Best chance to switch from D to R
  • Minnesota (Open)
    
  • Florida (Bill Nelson)
    
  • Nebraska (Ben Nelson)
    
  • Washington (Maria Cantwell)

Retiring Senators

• Jon Corzine (D-NJ) – Corzine could easily have won reelection if he had run. He is, however, Governor of New Jersey, having won the 2005 gubernatorial election. He has appointed Rep. Bob Menendez to fill his seat, and he will have a clear primary field in 2006. Republican State Senator Thomas Kean, Jr., the son of the former New Jersey Governor Thomas Kean announced on March 25, 2005 that he will run for the U.S. Senate seat.

• Mark Dayton (D-MN) – On February 9, 2005, Mark Dayton announced that he would not seek a second term in the Senate, leaving an open seat to be contested. Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy, the GOP candidate, secured major GOP endorsements and will not face any serious challengers. On the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) side, there are a three candidates seeking the DFL nomination and endorsement, including Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar and veterinarian, Ford Bell. Klobuchar and Ford have promised to abide by a DFL endorsement. Minneapolis attorney Klobuchar and Kennedy are the only two candidates who have been elected to office.

• Bill Frist (R-TN) – Frist has previously promised to leave the Senate when his second term ends in 2006, and is widely considered to have presidential aspirations. This will leave an open seat, contested by Democratic candidate Rep. Harold Ford, Jr., and Republicans former Rep. Ed Bryant, former Rep. Van Hilleary, Tennessee Republican Party Chairwoman Beth Harwell, and Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker.

• Jim Jeffords (I-VT) – Jeffords left the Republican Party to become an independent soon after being re-elected as a Republican in 2000. On April 20, 2005, he declared he would not seek another term, possibly for health reasons. Rep. Bernard Sanders, an independent and self-described socialist, is expected to run with little or no challenge from Democrats for the seat. Former Republican challenger Greg Parke plans to try his hand again, and both Lt. Governor Brian Dubie and businessman Richard Tarrant are considering running. A Research 2000 poll [1] conducted in May showed Sanders with a 40 percent lead over both Dubie and Tarrant.

• Paul Sarbanes (D-MD) - Sarbanes announced on March 11, 2005 that he would retire in 2006 rather than run for re-election. Sarbanes' seat was previously considered safe; Maryland is a Democratic-leaning state. Former NAACP president Kweisi Mfume and Rep. Ben Cardin have announced their candidacies for the Democratic nomination. Most other prominent Maryland Democrats have decided not to run or are not likely to enter the race. Maryland Republicans have recruited Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, who is generally seen as their best chance to capture the seat. Steele is African-American and Republican strategists feel he can cut into the usual large Democratic leads among blacks.

Notable Democratic incumbent races

• Maria Cantwell (D-WA) – Cantwell is drawing fire from liberals in Washington for many of her votes during President Bush's first term, including her vote for the Iraq War Resolution and the confirmation of Condoleezza Rice. 2004 gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi, widely considered the strongest possible GOP candidate, has so far declined to run against Cantwell, making her re-election fairly likely despite her close victory in 2000. Cantwell's apparent unpopularity among Democrats and Washington's adoption of a run-off primary [2] could potentially complicate her chances.

• Kent Conrad (D-ND) – Conrad faces the problem of being a Democratic senator in an increasingly Republican Great Plains state, and hopes to avoid the fate of Tom Daschle. Governor John Hoeven, re-elected by a 43-point margin in 2004, has been courted by President Bush to challenge Conrad, and would have been a formidable opponent. Hoeven, however, has declined to run, and Conrad is expected to cruise to reelection.

• Ben Nelson (D-NE) – Nelson, one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate, is running for re-election in a state that went for George W. Bush by 35 percentage points. Don Stenberg, who Nelson narrowly defeated in 2000, has declared his candidacy for the Republican nomination. Mike Johanns, the Secretary of Agriculture and former governor, would have been the favorite to take the seat, but did not run. Two other major Republicans are in the primary, Pete Ricketts, former COO of Ameritrade and David Kramer, for state GOP chair

• Bill Nelson (D-FL) – As the only southern Democrat facing re-election, Nelson will draw major regional attention to this race. Florida also will elect a new governor in 2006, and the cost of two major campaigns in a large state could require that one of the Republican candidates have a high profile. Rep. Katherine Harris, who served as Secretary of State during the 2000 election, is the presumed favorite in a Republican primary. Polls show Nelson with a decent lead and at or over the crucial 50% mark for an incumbent. Top Republicans, including Governor Jeb Bush and those close to President Bush, have tried to find a candidate to oppose Harris in the primary but have given up and lent their support to the Harris candidacy. [3]

• Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) – the poor Michigan economy in conjunction with low approval ratings make Stabenow potentially vulnerable, although the state voted Democratic in last year's Presidential election. Republican Congresswoman Candice Miller passed on the race, as did Jane Abraham, wife of former Senator and former Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham, who lost to Stabenow in 2000. Keith Butler, a conservative African-American clergyman, Mike Bouchard, Oakland County Sheriff , and Jerry Zandstra are announced Republicans in the race.

Notable Republican incumbent races

• George Allen (R-VA) – Allen is a popular Senator, but if he faces popular Governor Mark Warner, who will leave office in January 2006, this race would be very competitive.

• Conrad Burns (R-MT) – Burns faced a strong challenge from current Governor Brian Schweitzer in 2000, being re-elected by a mere 3% in a state that went for Bush twice by margins of over 20%. This, combined with the increasing strength of the state Democratic party, could make this a competitive race. State auditor John Morrison has filed papers to run for the Democratic nomination, and popular state senate president Jon Tester has announced his candidacy.

• Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) – Chafee, perhaps the most liberal Republican in the Senate, will face a primary challenge from a more conservative Republican from Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey. Currently, the candidates for the Democratic nomination are Secretary of State Matt Brown and former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse. US Reps. Jim Langevin and Patrick J. Kennedy have both chosen not to run.

• Rick Santorum (R-PA) - Santorum is a very conservative member of the Senate in a state that went for John Kerry in 2004 by 2.5%. Democrats believe that Santorum's seat is extremely vulnerable, and are making it a priority for a pick-up in 2006. Democrat Bob Casey, Jr., Pennsylvania's state treasurer, announced his candidacy on March 5, 2005. Currently, his only primary opponents are college professor Chuck Pennacchio and Alan Sandals [4]. Polls pitting Casey against Santorum have generally indicated greater support for Casey by 10 or more percentage points. [5]

• Jim Talent (R-MO) – Talent, who was elected to the four remaining years of this term in a 2002 special election, will face a strong Democratic challenge for his seat. Unlike most states, Missouri will not hold an election for governor in 2006, making this the only statewide race in a traditional battleground state. Talent was elected by a very slim margin, which suggests that he might be vulnerable. Claire McCaskill, the state auditor and 2004 Democratic gubernatorial candidate is running against Talent and is even with him in the most recent polls.

• Mike DeWine (R-OH) – DeWine has low approval ratings and the current scandal involving the Ohio Republican party could hurt his re-election chances. Democratic hopes have been raised by the ongoing "Coingate" scandal and the unpopularity of Governor Bob Taft. The Senator's son, Pat DeWine, lost the Republican nomination for the 2nd Congressional District, suggesting DeWine's influence may be waning. DeWine could also face a tough primary challenge from several more conservative Republicans unhappy with his relatively centrist stances including his role as one of the Gang of 14 who intervened to stop a showdwon over judical nominees. The Repulican nominee will have to face Congressman Sherrod Brown.

Senate contests in 2006

Related links

• U.S. elections
• U.S. House election, 2006
• U.S. gubernatorial elections, 2006

External links

• Babington, Charles and Balz,Dan Democrats Strengthen Chances For Senate -- Va., Mo. and Tenn. May Tip the Balance Washington Post, October 21, 2006.