Louisiana U.S. Senate election, 2008
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Categories: Louisiana | 2008 elections
Candidates
The presumed major candidates are Mary Landrieu, the incumbent Democratic senator, and John Neely Kennedy, the incumbent Republican state treasurer. Kennedy switched his registration in 2007 from Democratic to Republican in apparent preparation for this race, although he has not confirmed his candidacy.
Projection
This race is considered to be the Republicans' best chance for a pick-up in the 2008 cycle, because of the closeness of Landrieu's previous victories, strong GOP performance in Louisiana at the presidential level, and demographic changes in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.
Kennedy has succesfully won statewide elections, but in the 2004 Senate election (won by Republican David Vitter), Kennedy, running as a Democrat, finished 3rd, receiving only 14.92% of the vote behind Vitter and fellow Democrat Chris John. In addition, changes in Louisiana demographics have not been as severe as originally feared. Extrapolation of Landrieu's parish-by-parish percentages from her 2002 race, using 2007 gubernatorial race turnout numbers (which should reflect post-Katrina demographic shifts), still indicate a narrow Landrieu victory.
| Parish | Landrieu 2002 % | Terrell 2002 % | 2007 Gov. turnout | Landrieu 2008 votes | GOP 2008 votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acadia | 46.69 | 53.31 | 19,377 | 9,048 | 10,329 |
| Allen | 58.57 | 41.43 | 7,870 | 4,609 | 3,261 |
| Ascension | 49.98 | 50.02 | 29,705 | 14,847 | 14,858 |
| Assumption | 67.29 | 32.71 | 9,220 | 6,204 | 3,016 |
| Avoyelles | 56.90 | 43.10 | 15,121 | 8,603 | 6,517 |
| Beauregard | 41.40 | 58.61 | 10,016 | 4,146 | 5,870 |
| Bienville | 59.19 | 40.81 | 5,727 | 3,390 | 2,337 |
| Bossier | 41.12 | 58.88 | 26,914 | 11,066 | 15,848 |
| Caddo | 56.08 | 43.92 | 65,143 | 36,529 | 28,614 |
| Calcasieu | 53.48 | 46.52 | 46,503 | 24,869 | 21,634 |
| Caldwell | 43.07 | 56.93 | 4,433 | 1,909 | 2,524 |
| Cameron | 50.04 | 49.96 | 3,622 | 1,812 | 1,810 |
| Catahoula | 53.16 | 46.84 | 4,564 | 2,426 | 2,138 |
| Claiborne | 53.13 | 46.87 | 4,799 | 2,550 | 2,249 |
| Concordia | 53.39 | 46.61 | 7,525 | 4,017 | 3,508 |
| De Soto | 56.40 | 43.60 | 8,881 | 5,009 | 3,872 |
| East Baton Rouge | 50.88 | 49.12 | 124,547 | 63,367 | 61,180 |
| East Carroll | 62.93 | 37.07 | 3,074 | 1,935 | 1,139 |
| East Feliciana | 55.05 | 44.95 | 7,598 | 4,183 | 3,415 |
| Evangeline | 50.95 | 49.05 | 12,062 | 6,146 | 5,916 |
| Franklin | 45.26 | 54.74 | 7,587 | 3,434 | 4,153 |
| Grant | 39.87 | 60.13 | 6,673 | 2,661 | 4,012 |
| Iberia | 44.43 | 55.57 | 22,878 | 10,165 | 12,713 |
| Iberville | 68.29 | 31.70 | 13,372 | 9,132 | 4,240 |
| Jackson | 49.13 | 50.87 | 5,264 | 2,586 | 2,678 |
| Jefferson | 44.32 | 55.68 | 116,154 | 51,474 | 64,680 |
| Jefferson Davis | 52.51 | 47.49 | 11,587 | 6,084 | 5,503 |
| Lafayette | 40.89 | 59.11 | 57,292 | 23,426 | 33,866 |
| Lafourche | 54.88 | 45.13 | 27,535 | 15,110 | 12,425 |
| LaSalle | 33.12 | 66.88 | 5,665 | 1,876 | 3,789 |
| Lincoln | 45.61 | 54.39 | 10,448 | 5,683 | 5,579 |
| Livingston | 35.55 | 64.45 | 33,117 | 11,774 | 21,343 |
| Madison | 56.89 | 43.11 | 3,800 | 2,161 | 1,638 |
| Morehouse | 50.22 | 49.78 | 8,477 | 4,257 | 4,220 |
| Natchitoches | 54.45 | 45.55 | 13,209 | 7,192 | 6,017 |
| Orleans | 79.74 | 20.26 | 75,880 | 60,504 | 15,375 |
| Ouachita | 41.48 | 58.52 | 43,322 | 17,970 | 25,352 |
| Plaquemines | 49.19 | 50.81 | 7,858 | 3,865 | 3,993 |
| Pointe Coupee | 62.41 | 37.59 | 10,833 | 3,865 | 3,993 |
| Rapides | 46.04 | 53.96 | 39,348 | 18,117 | 21,231 |
| Red River | 61.56 | 38.44 | 3,706 | 2,281 | 1,425 |
| Richland | 44.31 | 55.69 | 7,197 | 3,189 | 4,008 |
| Sabine | 39.90 | 60.10 | 7,679 | 3,064 | 4,615 |
| St. Bernard | 46.93 | 53.07 | 11,589 | 5,438 | 6,151 |
| St. Charles | 47.67 | 52.33 | 18,206 | 8,680 | 9,526 |
| St. Helena | 67.75 | 32.25 | 5,157 | 3,494 | 1,663 |
| St. James | 68.06 | 31.94 | 10,106 | 6,878 | 3,228 |
| St. John the Baptist | 60.28 | 39.72 | 14,986 | 9,033 | 5,953 |
| St. Landry | 57.71 | 42.29 | 33,208 | 19,164 | 14,044 |
| St. Martin | 55.68 | 44.32 | 16,630 | 9,260 | 7,370 |
| St. Mary | 49.94 | 50.06 | 15,296 | 7,638 | 7,658 |
| St. Tammany | 31.88 | 68.12 | 68,531 | 21,845 | 46,686 |
| Tangipahoa | 45.84 | 54.16 | 32,292 | 14,802 | 17,490 |
| Tensas | 59.99 | 40.01 | 2,753 | 1,652 | 1,101 |
| Terrebonne | 48.93 | 51.07 | 28,078 | 13,737 | 14,341 |
| Union | 39.36 | 60.64 | 7,616 | 2,998 | 4,618 |
| Vermilion | 51.10 | 48.90 | 20,281 | 10,363 | 9,918 |
| Vernon | 45.94 | 54.06 | 10,498 | 4,823 | 5,675 |
| Washington | 53.48 | 46.52 | 13,077 | 6,993 | 6,084 |
| Webster | 51.31 | 48.69 | 12,073 | 6,195 | 5,878 |
| West Baton Rouge | 58.06 | 41.94 | 8,673 | 5,035 | 3,638 |
| West Carroll | 35.88 | 64.12 | 3,937 | 1,413 | 2,524 |
| West Feliciana | 55.67 | 44.33 | 4,473 | 2,490 | 1,983 |
| Winn | 47.56 | 52.44 | 5,970 | 2,839 | 3,131 |
| Statewide | 51.70 | 48.30 | 1,299,012 | 653,284 | 645,728 |
| Statewide | - | - | - | 50.29 | 49.71 |
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