Nader is a spoiler

From dKosopedia

1 Status
2 Origin
3 Talking Points
4 Rebuttals
5 Analysis
6 Symbology

Status

Active meme.

Origin

The 2000 election, in which it is widely assumed that Ralph Nader's presence was a large factor in Al Gore's loss to George W. Bush, due to the spoiler effect.

Talking Points

"Ralph, we can't afford you!" - Air America's Randi Rhodes to Nader in 2004
"A vote for Nader is a vote for George W. Bush." - Governor Howard Dean, in support of Sen. John Kerry's 2004 Presidential campaign
The perfect is the enemy of the good. We understand that Kerry is not entitled to your vote. We ask that you give it to him anyway, and devote your energy toward eliminating the spoiler effect in elections by promoting alternative voting systems

Rebuttals

wegerje's diary entry from May 8: "Nader"

Harvard political scientist Barry Burden's [1] analysis of Nader's effect on the 2000 election suggests that Nader did not try to spoil the election, even if his campaign had the effect of electing Bush: [2]

A Green Party response: "Dispelling the Myth of 2000" by Irene Dieter, California Green Party

A former Nader staffer's response: "Debunking the Myth: Ralph Nader didn't cost Al Gore the presidency in 2000. Here's why."

To the extent that there is a spoiler effect, it is the result of our outdated voting system. Instant Run-off Voting (IRV) would eliminate the spoiler effect by allowing people to cast first place votes for Nader, and second place votes for Kerry (or vice versa). As this would clearly benefit both progressive Democrats and Greens, this would seem to be a potential issue around which to build real Green-Democrat coalitions. IRV, however, is not a perfect solution, and creates problems of its own. See Voting Systems.

Analysis

Polls show that Nader's presence is a factor, and would be detrimental to Kerry's odds of winning if the election were held today.
The election is scheduled for November, so Nader's presence at this stage doesn't hurt matters. Handicapping Kerry keeps it close, and keeps the Kerry camp from getting overconfident. It also keeps Kerry from becoming a Republican to win.
While there is little evidence that Nader is truly drawing conservative voters, there is some evidence that he's pulling in conservative money. If that is true, getting Republicans to spend money promoting the viewpoints espoused by Nader is rich.
A good way to lure in Nader voters is through promotion of alternative Voting Systems, such as Instant Runoff Voting and Condorcet voting.
If Nader sticks with attacking Bush, continues to draw press coverage, and drops out just before the election, a Nader candidacy will be a huge positive for Kerry. Based on past behavior and current rhetoric, this scenario seems doubtful. However, there's an outside chance that this is what Nader is planning on doing.
Even if Nader doesn't drop out, his numbers will likely be much smaller than they were in 2000.
- Nader was polling as high as 7% just prior to the 2000 election.
- In 2000, there was a possibility that he would draw 5% of the vote and thus make the Green Party eligible for federal matching funds. Nader is running as an independent in 2004.
- Nader had a lot of famous supporters in 2000 which are not supporting him in 2004.
- Nader doesn't seem to be as interested in drawing voters this time around as he is in drawing attention to himself and his causes.
- Any illusion of Bush being a moderate Republican has been shattered by his first term track record. Thus, the contrast between Kerry and Bush is much more pronounced than the contrast between Gore and Bush.
- Kerry supporters have a concrete example of things going horribly awry to sway Kerry/Nader fence-sitters (i.e. the 2000 election).
- So far, Kerry seems to be doing a much better job of dealing with Nader than Gore did. In part, this is because Gore didn't fully recognize the threat until it was too late.
Summary: Despite current poll numbers, Nader is not a huge threat. Calm reasoning and an inclusive approach should be used in attracting Nader voters (e.g. rather than foaming at the mouth and screaming "YOU BASTARDS GAVE THE WHITE HOUSE TO BUSH!!!! I'LL KILL YOU!!!! ARUGUGGUGGH!!!!")