Measuring the howard stern effect

From dKosopedia

Category: Media figures

In June of 2004, Howard Stern said the following:

"John Kerry will receive more votes because of this. ... My audience will vote in a bloc."

"We're also in a lot of key states. ... If we can affect that state that's big news."

Media claimed that Stern controlled a large percentage of votes, and that his listeners would generally do what he said. This article measures the "Howard Stern Effect" on the 2004 election in some of his biggest markets. The source on all of these is Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.

"Blue" states where Stern can be heard:

New York

Bush 2000 Votes: 2,403,374

Bush 2004 Votes: 2,780,749

Stern Gained Bush: 377,375 Votes

Bush 2000 Margin: -24.98%

Bush 2004 Margin: -17.27%

Stern Gained Bush: 7.71%

Pennsylvania

Bush 2000 Votes: 2,281,127

Bush 2004 Votes: 2,725,750

Stern Gained Bush: 444,623 Votes

Bush 2000 Margin: -4.17%

Bush 2004 Margin: -2.4%

Stern Gained Bush: 1.77%

California

Bush 2000 Votes: 4,567,429

Bush 2004 Votes: 4,406,033

Stern Lost Bush: 161,396 Votes

Bush 2000 Margin: -11.28%

Bush 2004 Margin: -10.28%

Stern Gained Bush: 1%

Massachusetts

Bush 2000 Votes: 878,502

Bush 2004 Votes: 1,055,121

Stern Gained Bush: 176,619 Votes in Kerry's Home State

Bush 2000 Margin: -27.3%

Bush 2004 Margin: -25.2%

Stern Gained Bush: 2.1%

Hotly contested states:

Ohio

Bush 2000 Votes: 2,351,209

Bush 2004 Votes: 2,783,655

Stern Gained Bush: 432,446 Votes

Bush 2000 Margin: 3.51%

Bush 2004 Margin: 2.39%

Stern Cost Bush: 1.12%

Florida

Bush 2000 Votes: 2,912,790

Bush 2004 Votes: 3,812,485

Stern Gained Bush: 899,695 Votes

Bush 2000 Margin: .01%

Bush 2004 Margin: 5.03%

Stern Gained Bush: 5.02%

Totals

Bush 2000 Votes in Reviewed States: 15,394,431

Bush 2004 Votes in Reviewed States: 17,563,793

Stern Gained Bush: 2,169,362 Votes

Bush 2000 Margin in Reviewed States: -6.79% (15,394,431 of 34,564,438 total votes)

Bush 2004 Margin in Reviewed States: -1.09% (17,563,793 of 37,688,556 total votes (prelim))

Stern Gained Bush: 5.7%